As we head into December and the heart of the holiday season, Marin’s market is doing what it typically does this time of year: fewer new transactions begin, but well-positioned homes still sell, and the underlying fundamentals remain intact. The story in November is that pricing continues to hold even as inventories increase. This is a market that looks more balanced than the last few years, with buyers being selective and sellers needing to be sharper on preparation and positioning.
Key year-over-year metrics for Marin County (November 2025 vs. November 2024)
Median sold price: $1,380,000 (down 0.4% YoY — essentially flat)
Homes for sale: 394 (up 10.1% YoY)
Average days on market: 47 (down 7.8% YoY)
Months of inventory: 2.1 (flat YoY)
Average sold price per square foot: $845 (down 6.5% YoY)
Sale price to original list price: 96% (flat YoY)
What this means for pricing power
The median sold price is essentially holding steady year-over-year, which is an important signal going into 2026. At the same time, the average sale price per square foot is lower than last year, suggesting buyers are negotiating more, property condition is mattering more, and the market is less forgiving of homes that feel overpriced or under-prepared. The sale-to-original-list-price ratio holding at 96% reinforces that point: pricing power remains intact for the homes that are positioned correctly, but buyers are not broadly paying above list on average.
Supply and demand heading into year-end
Inventory is up year-over-year, giving buyers more choice than they had last fall. Even with that increase, months of inventory remains at 2.1—flat from last year—which indicates the market is not building excess supply. In practical terms, this is a healthier environment: buyers can be more thoughtful, and sellers can still succeed with strong presentation, accurate pricing, and a clear marketing plan.
This Month’s Headlines
- The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 0.25%, setting the target range at 3.5%–3.75%, while signaling a more challenging path ahead for further reductions; the decision included three dissents.
• Mortgage rates have eased in recent months, and even small shifts continue to matter for payment-sensitive buyers—especially in the entry and mid-price segments.
• Venture capital investment in the SF Bay Area remains exceptionally strong, with more than $140 billion deployed year-to-date—nearly 60% of all U.S. VC funding—largely concentrated in artificial intelligence.
• AI-related hiring and wage growth continue to support Bay Area demand, particularly in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, with Marin often feeling that momentum shortly after.
• Regionally, inventory increased across most counties, though supply remains limited compared with historical norms in many areas.
• San Francisco stands out for intensity: the Bay Area report notes homes selling in roughly three weeks on average there, with more than 80% closing over asking, highlighting how location and pricing drive velocity.
Greater Bay Area Context
The Bay Area market is showing seasonal softness, but the economic base—especially venture funding and wage growth—remains a meaningful tailwind. The regional report describes a market that is increasingly bifurcated by county and price point. Inventory is higher across much of the region, yet still constrained relative to historical averages. Sales volume is slightly lower overall, but North Bay activity has been stronger in certain price tiers, helped by lower mortgage rates over recent months.
The report also emphasizes that where prices are down, the decline is often influenced by a larger share of lower-priced homes closing rather than a widespread drop in values. That theme aligns with what we’re seeing locally in Marin: a more normalized market where the outcome depends heavily on preparation, pricing, and micro-location.
In My World
I don’t have any new active listings to announce publicly right now, but I did just bring an off-market home in Mill Valley into escrow for one of my seller clients. This is a good example of why, in certain situations, off-market exposure can be the best path—especially when privacy, timing, or control of the process is a priority.
Through my participation in Top Agent Network, I can quietly market a home to a highly vetted group of top-performing agents and qualified buyers across Marin, San Francisco, and the greater Bay Area. In the right circumstances, this approach can produce a strong result without the uncertainty or disruption of a full public launch.
Looking ahead, it’s never too soon to start planning for the spring market. The homes that perform best in March, April, and May are typically the ones where strategy begins months in advance—deciding whether to go on-market or off-market, identifying the highest-impact improvements, and aligning timing with broader market conditions.
My Continued Gratitude
As Thanksgiving gives way to the rest of the holiday season, I want to express sincere gratitude to my clients and community for your trust and support. I’m grateful for the opportunity to guide people through meaningful real estate decisions, and I never take that confidence for granted.
How Can I Help?
Marin County continues to offer a compelling combination of lifestyle, location, and value. I am always happy to talk about the Marin County real estate market. Call or text me at 415-847-5584 for a personalized report for your home and neighborhood, or to discuss the best strategy for making your real estate goals a reality.
