The Marin County real estate market in August 2024 was characterized by longer days on market and a moderate pullback in prices, though year-over-year gains in home values remain positive. Despite a near 3% month-over-month drop in median home prices, we see a healthy 7.5% increase compared to September 2023. However, with the active prices down 4.5% month-over-month and an 11% decline from last year, it’s clear that the market is recalibrating, possibly in response to rising interest rates and broader economic uncertainties brought on by the upcoming elections.
One of the standout trends this month is the rise in inventory. Months of inventory climbed to 2.6 months, an increase of over 50% from last month, signaling that buyers have more options. With more homes on the market, sellers may need to adjust their strategies. However, the fact that the sale-to-list price ratio has stayed firm at 96% indicates that motivated buyers are still willing to meet sellers near their asking prices.
Despite a near 3% month-over-month drop in median home prices, we saw a healthy 7.5% increase compared to August 2023. However, with the active prices down 4.5% month-over-month and an 11% decline from last year, it’s clear that the market is recalibrating, possibly in response to rising interest rates and broader economic uncertainties.
We also saw only 35% of homes go for over the asking price in Marin, compared to 53% in the broader SF Bay Area. Historically Marin has lagged San Francisco in this metric, as homes are often underpriced there to drive multiple offers.
Looking at the broader California market and national trends, Marin County’s market remains resilient. While many regions are seeing steeper price declines, Marin’s desirable location and limited supply continue to underpin the market’s relative strength. On a national level, the real estate market is feeling the impact of higher mortgage rates and affordability constraints, which is likely contributing to the slower sales pace we’re seeing locally.
Key Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers
- Buyers: With inventory rising and days on market lengthening, now is an excellent time to explore options and negotiate terms. Patience may yield better deals, but with Marin’s limited long-term supply, the market could rebound as we head into 2025.
- Sellers: While homes are taking longer to sell, pricing competitively from the start remains crucial to securing a sale. The fact that buyers are still willing to pay close to list price highlights the importance of understanding market value and being proactive with price adjustments if needed.
Marin County Has Demonstrated Strong Price Appreciation Over the Past 30 Years
Over the past 30 years, Marin County has experienced a remarkable appreciation in home values, driven by both its proximity to San Francisco and its highly desirable living environment. In 1994, the median home price in Marin County was around $330,000. Fast forward to 2024, and that figure has risen to approximately $1.53 million, reflecting a significant increase in property values over time.
This long-term appreciation is a testament to the ongoing demand for real estate in Marin County, bolstered by limited housing supply, strong local economies, and a preference for suburban and semi-rural living, especially in the post-pandemic era. During periods of economic downturns, such as the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, Marin saw some temporary softening in the market, but overall, the county’s real estate has consistently bounced back and achieved solid growth.
As seen in the chart, the most significant jumps occurred in the early 2000s and post-2010, reflecting the broader trends in California’s housing market and the shifts in homebuyer preferences during these times. The continued high demand and limited inventory suggest that Marin County’s real estate market will likely remain strong in the foreseeable future
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