Sold Comps Aren’t Enough Anymore — Start With Active and Withdrawn Listings. We May See the Market Shift More Clearly by March/April.

I first wrote about this in 2007 – Sold Comps Matter Less. Nearly two decades later, the core message is relevant again — but the context has shifted dramatically.

There was a time when pricing a home in Charlottesville was simple: look at the sold comps, justify the number, and move forward. That was the backbone of every pricing conversation.

Not anymore.

Today, sold comps still matter, but they’re only one part of a much larger picture within so very many Charlottesville micro-markets. Accurate pricing now depends on understanding:

For many years, buyers had almost nothing to choose from. Now, inventory is still low but rising, while buyer demand is easing – economy, job market, prices, interest rates, uncertainty – pick your topic and it’s affecting the Charlottesville and national real estate markets. In many neighborhoods, there are several active listings instead of one. And they’re sitting longer than five or six days.

This means your pricing strategy must do more than justify a number — it has to compete.

Once I run a home through multiple pricing models and compare it against everything in the segment, we decide whether — and by how much — we need to undercut the competition. The Charlottesville real estate market  is shifting, and by March or April we’ll see even more clearly how much.

One thing is certain: a price based on “what I want or need to make” is no longer realistic. The market decides value, and it does so quickly.

Two truths I remind clients of in every market:

1. Overpricing is costly.
   If the market doesn’t support your price, it will show you immediately — and adjusting later is always more painful.

2. Underpricing corrects upward fast.
   If the demand is there, the market will push the price where it needs to go. Quickly.

Buyers in your segment are watching their – and your – market band.  like hawks. They know the market; they study it and check Zillow religiously and frequently. They know the comps. And they know when a seller’s expectations don’t match the market.

Even the Wall Street Journal has noted this trend – When Home Sellers Set Prices Too High, They’re Paying for It

“If you are serious about selling your home, you might need to drop the price.

Overpriced houses are languishing on the market as buyers continue to be deterred by elevated mortgage rates and persistent economic uncertainty.

Many sellers optimistically price their homes based on sales from earlier in the 2020s, when they saw neighbors’ homes get snapped up quickly at high prices.

…

Setting a price too high can make the sales process drag on. Listings that sold after a price reduction typically spent about five times as many days on the market as the average for homes priced right from the start, according to data from NAR.

…

When sellers can’t stomach a big price cut, some opt to take their home off the market in hopes that they can relist it later at a more favorable time. They often face a deeper price cut later, though. (bolding mine)”

If you’re preparing to sell — or even thinking about it — now is the time to understand where your home fits in today’s market realities. I’m here to help; ask me.