Hello, watch enthusiasts!
Just weeks after the shocking September data revealed a catastrophic 55.6% nosedive in Swiss watch exports to the US, a glimmer of hope – or perhaps just a strategic chess move – has emerged from the highest echelons of power. It seems the White House has been buzzing with horological diplomacy.
President Trump himself has now publicly signaled a willingness to re-evaluate the punitive 39% additional tariff that landed with such a thud on August 7th. “We’re working on a deal to get their tariffs a little bit lower,” Mr. Trump stated yesterday, adding, “I haven’t set any number, but we’re going to be working on something to help Switzerland.”
This statement follows a high-profile meeting in the Oval Office last week, where some of the most influential figures in the luxury watch world – Rolex CEO Jean-Frédéric Dufour and Richemont Chairman Johann Rupert -reportedly met with the President. US Trade Representative Jamison Greer, a key player in trade negotiations, was also present, suggesting serious discussions are underway.
The Calm Before the Deal?
Sources, including a Bloomberg report, suggest that Switzerland is actively pursuing a trade agreement that could see the tariff rate drop to a more manageable 15%, bringing it in line with duties faced by the European Union. While Swiss officials remain tight-lipped, only confirming “talks are ongoing,” the market has already reacted positively. Shares in Watches of Switzerland Group, a major player in the US market, saw significant upticks, while Swatch Group also registered a healthy rise.
This potential shift, however, needs to be viewed within the larger context of the year. Despite the dramatic September drop, Swiss watch exports to the US for the first nine months of 2025 are still up by a remarkable 10.4% year-on-year. This seemingly contradictory figure underscores the frantic “front-loading” of inventory by watchmakers earlier in the year, as they rushed to ship stock before the tariff deadline. America, it’s worth remembering, remains the single largest market for Swiss watches by a considerable margin, with year-to-date exports worth CHF 3.5 billion – almost triple that of Japan, the next largest market.
The Microbrand Ripple Effect: What Does a Lower Tariff Mean?
In our last article, we highlighted how the 39% tariff created an unprecedented, almost accidental, advantage for independent and microbrand watches. With “Swiss Made” timepieces facing a significant surcharge, collectors were naturally driven to explore high-value alternatives that were exempt from the new tax.
A reduction to 15% would undoubtedly offer some relief to the luxury giants and their customers. Retail prices that saw sharp increases (or absorbed margins) might stabilize, or even see modest adjustments. Brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and LVMH brands (including TAG Heuer) that initially held their pricing post-April’s 10% tariff might now find more breathing room.
However, it’s crucial to understand that a 15% tariff is still a tariff. It still adds a significant layer of cost that many independent and microbrand offerings simply don’t have. The competitive landscape, while slightly less extreme than the 39% scenario, would still favor the agile, non-Swiss producers who can deliver exceptional quality and design without the added customs burden.
The fundamental shift in collector mindset – the willingness to look beyond the “Swiss Made” label for value, innovation, and direct brand connection- has already begun. This potential tariff reduction won’t erase that curiosity; it might just temper the urgency.
Beyond the Numbers: The Value of Dialogue
Regardless of the final percentage, the very fact that these discussions are happening at the highest levels is significant. It demonstrates the global economic impact of trade policies and the power of an industry to advocate for its interests. For the wider watch community, it underscores how deeply intertwined geopolitics and horology truly are.
While the high-stakes negotiations continue behind closed doors, one thing is clear: the watch world is anything but static. We’ll be keeping a close eye on these developments, ready to unpack what it all means for our incredible community of independent and microbrand enthusiasts.
What do you make of these new developments?
- Do you think a 15% tariff would significantly change the market dynamic back towards “Swiss Made” luxury?
- Have these trade discussions affected your recent watch buying decisions?
- What does this mean for the growth of independent and microbrand watches in the US?
Join the conversation below and share your thoughts!
