Dollar and Tech Stocks Stagger
December 3, 2025
Around mid-day in NY, the dollar is showing losses from Tuesday closing levels of 0.9% against sterling, 0.6% relative to the kiwi, 0.4% vis-a-vis the yen and Aussie dollar, 0.3% versus the euro and Swiss franc, and 0.2% against Canada’s currency. The DXY weighted dollar measure is off 0.5%, and the euro is around its 7-week high.
The tech-laden Nasdaq is marginally lower, whereas other broad equity indices are higher, especially the soft-cap Russell 2000 (+1.2%). While Japan’s Nikkei and the South Korean Kospi index gained about 1%, share prices in Hong Kong and China lost 1.3% and 0.5%. There’s been scant net movement today thus far in the stock markets of Britain, Germany, or France.
Bitcoin has recovered 1.3%, and prices for gold and oil are 0.7% and 0.6% firmer.
Ten-year sovereign debt yields have slid a tad in the U.S., U.K. and Italy but risen 3 bps in Japan.
U.S. economic data releases paint a concerning picture, reinforcing the market’s expectation of a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month.
- ADP estimates that private sector jobs fell 32k last month, which would represent the worst result in 32 months.
- Industrial production ticked only 0.1% higher in September, leaving capacity utilization at August’s 3-month low of 75.9% and below what analysts were expecting.
- Mortgage applications last week dropped 1.4% to their lowest level since late August.
- Although the non-manufacturing ISM-compiled purchasing managers index rose 0.2 points to a 7-month high of 52.6, the orders sub-index fell to 52.9 from 56.2.
- The S&P Global-compiled composite PMI printed at a 2-month low, and the services PMI was revised 0.9 index points lower.
- Import price inflation in September failed to reflect a tariff shock, rising just 0.1% on month and 0.3% on year. Non-fuel import price inflation has fallen to +0.8% from 2.0% in the year-earlier month of September 2024.
Euroland’s composite purchasing managers index (manufacturing and services) for November printed at a 30-month high of 52.8. A 53.6 reading in the services sector was also at a 30-month high and associated with robust demand pointing to higher growth this quarter than in the last one. Composite PMI scores among individually reported euro area members were all above the 50 no-change level, ranging from 50.4 in France to 52.4 in Germany and and a 42-month Irish high of 55.8.
China’s composite and service-sector PMIs readings of 51.2 and 52.1 were their lowest scores in 4 and 5 months.
Although revised up, British composite and service PMI readings were both at 2-month lows, respectively 51.2 and 51.3.
Japanese composite and service PMIs, in contrast, printed at 3-month highs of 52.0 and 53.2 in November.
Producer prices in the euro area edged 0.1% higher in October but posted their third straight negative 12-month change (minus 0.5%), which had followed a streak of eight positive year-on-year readings. Previously, PPI inflation had plunged from +40.1% reached in August 2022 to -12.0% in September 2023.
Turkish consumer price inflation of 31.1% in November represents a 44-month low and less than half the 75.5% high in May 2024 or this decade’s peak of 85.5% in October 2022. A producer price inflation reading last month of 27.2% was Turkey’s highest score in 11 months, however.
The National Bank of Poland as expected cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points again. The new level of 4.0% is the lowest since March 2022 and down from 5.75% maintained from October 2023 until May 2025 and the cyclical peak of 6.75% for a year prior to an initial cut in September 2023. Polish CPI inflation has receded to 2.4% from a peak of 18.4% in February 2023 to 4.1% as recently as June 2025. Inflation is now in the middle of the 1.5-2.5% target range.
South Korean real GDP growth in 3Q 2025 of 1.3% was the most in three quarters and associated with a 5-quarter high of 1.8% in year-on-year growth.
Australian economic growth slowed last quarter to a softer-than-forecast 0.4% from 2Q and 2.1% from the year-earlier quarter.
Among other November purchasing manager surveys reported today,
- India’s composite and service sector indices of 59.7 and 59.8 represent a 6-month low and a 2-month high.
- Australia recorded 3-month highs of 52.6 on the the composite measure and 52.8 among services.
- Sweden’s composite and service readings of 57.8 and 59,1 indicated the fastest expansion in 41 months.
- Brazil’s composite and service PMIs of 49.6 and 50.1 are their highest in eight months.
- Non-oil PMI readings for Saudi Arabia of 58.5 was a 2-month low after an 11-month high scored in October, while the Egyptian non-oil reading climbed to a 61-month high of 51.1.
- Hong Kong’s private PMI rose 0.7 points to 52.9, a 31-month high.
- At 55.4, Singapore’s PMI showed the most dynamism in 37 months.
- Canadian November composite and services PMIs of 44.5 and 44.3 were sharply below October scores of 50.3 and 50.5 and their worst results in five and six months, respectively.
Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: composite November 2025 purchasing manager surveys, Euroland PPI, National Bank of Poland
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