Fed Stays on Hold: What It Means for the Market and Your Money
by Chad Shoop
Chad is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) who specializes in stock and options trading. For over 12 years, he’s led some of the largest trading research firms on the planet.
Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates the same, between 4.25% and 4.5%.
This means they aren’t making it more expensive or cheaper to borrow money right now.
And that’s a good thing.
The stock market moved higher on the news as it shows the Fed wants to be careful because the economy isn’t growing as fast as before, and prices are still rising.
Here’s why this was the Goldilocks report traders were looking for…
Acknowledging the Economic Slow Down
With the Fed not making any adjustments to their target rates, it was the commentary around it that had traders feeling pretty good.
The Fed now expects the economy to grow at a slower pace this year, compared to earlier predictions that were above 2%. This drop is because people aren’t spending as much, imports are down and some businesses are cutting back on investments.
At the same time, inflation (which means prices go up) is still expected to be higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
That means things are still getting more expensive, which can be tough on families and businesses.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained all the uncertainty that goes along with these data points.
He said that tariffs (extra taxes on imported goods) have made prices higher, which makes it even harder for the Fed to balance keeping inflation low while also making sure people have jobs.
He also noted that while job growth is still strong, wages aren’t rising as fast, which could mean that fewer people will spend money in the coming months.
But here’s the thing – the Fed’s talking resulted in what many traders feel is a Goldilocks report, the best of both worlds.
How the Market Reacted: The ‘Goldilocks’ Effect
Investors were happy with the Fed’s announcement. The stock market went up, with the S&P 500 rising 1.1%, the Dow Jones climbing 383 points, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.4%.
This happened because traders see the Fed’s decision as being “just right” – not too strict and not too loose, which is why some are calling it a ‘Goldilocks’ decision.
By keeping rates steady, the Fed is letting the economy run on its own.
This makes things more predictable for businesses and investors, which is important when the economy is uncertain.
For traders, this news means stability for now.
With broader markets (the S&P 500) fluctuating below that critical 200-day simple moving average, all eyes were on the Fed this week.
They could have thrown a curve ball at the market, sending shockwaves through the end of the week.
Instead, they took a step back. They played it safe, did not move the needle on interest rates and provided the commentary needed for traders to count on additional rate cuts in 2025.
Remember, higher rates are a constraint on the economy.
Lower rates are supportive of economic growth. President Trump has been clear: he wants the Fed to cut interest rates.
This will help stimulate the economy while also cushioning the negative impacts tariffs may have on the economy as those look to ramp up on April 1.
This doesn’t mean we can ignore economic reports.
It’s actually the opposite.
With the Fed kicking the proverbial can down the road, the market could remain sensitive to sharp swings around data like job growth and inflation numbers, because those will influence the Fed’s future decisions.
Even though the Fed has hinted at two rate cuts this year, that could change if inflation gets worse or the economy slows down more than expected.
Final Thoughts
The Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady while still planning for potential cuts later this year is a careful approach to managing the economy.
For now, the Fed is taking a back seat, letting markets adjust on their own.
This gives traders and investors some much needed breathing room to plan their next moves after the recent selloff.
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