Kyle Kondik’s analysis at the Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Key points:
— President Trump pushing Texas Republicans to squeeze more seats out of the Lone Star State has led to the possibility of other states on both sides trying to draw new maps.
— California stands out as a state where Democrats could potentially get several extra seats through a gerrymander, but their path toward doing so is much more complicated than the Republican path in Texas.
— Looking across the entire country, Republicans appear to have easier opportunities for drawing new gerrymanders than Democrats. Ohio was already set to likely produce a better map for Republicans, and there are other options too.
— In states where Democrats control the state government and might want to draw themselves additional seats, there are often roadblocks that don’t exist in Republican-leaning states.
