From 2026 onwards, the FIFA World Cup will expand from 32 to 48 teams. Instead of the current format (8 groups of 4 teams), future tournaments will consist of 16 groups of 3. This will mean that some teams will only play two games before being eliminated. It will also result in an odd number of teams per group.
The current 32-team format is perfect. It is balanced with four teams in each section with the top two progressing to the Round of 16.
Unfortunately, the overall quality of the tournament is restricted by the number of places allocated to stronger confederations such as UEFA (Europe) and CONMEBOL (South America). For example, four time winners and reigning European champions, Italy failed to make this year’s finals. The Azzuri would no doubt improve the standard of the tournament ahead of teams from other confederations such as Iran, Costa Rica and Australia.
The number of places allocated to each confederation in qualifying for the 2022 World Cup were as follows:
UEFA: 13
CONMEBOL : 4.5
CAF (Africa): 5
CONCACAF: 3.5
AFC (Asia): 4.5 plus Qatar (hosts)
Oceania: 0.5
In the play offs to reach the finals, European teams competed against each other; the fifth placed South American team (Peru) played the Asian play off winner (Australia); the fourth placed CONCACAF team (Costa Rica) played Oceania winners (New Zealand).
Representation vs. Quality
The 32 best teams in world football according to FIFA rankings are not the same 32 teams that comprise the World Cup finals. This is largely due to the limited number of teams per confederation. It is important to strike a balance between representation (from different confederations, particularly those from developing football regions) and quality.
In the opening games, Saudi Arabia and Japan upset two of international football’s super powers: Argentina and Germany. This shows the value of including teams from supposedly weaker confederations. On the other hand, Iran and Costa Rica suffered heavy defeats to England and Spain. From a quality perspective, Italy would be a massive upgrade, as they would have gone into the finals as one of the favourites as opposed to making up the numbers.
A solution to achieving this balance could be to pair European/South American teams against teams from elsewhere in an expanded intercontinental play-off system. Each confederation would have a reduced number of automatic places, but more of the world’s strongest 32 nations could play their way into the finals.
This is how the number of automatic and play off places (shown in brackets) should be allocated:
UEFA: 10 (6)
CONMEBOL : 4 (4)
CAF: 4 (3)
CONCACAF: 3 (2)
AFC: 3 (2)
Oceania: 0 (1)
* Host nation(s) must qualify
Total number of automatic places = 24
Total number of teams entering play offs = 18 (competing for remaining 8 places)
How this could look if applied for 2022 World Cup:
Automatic qualifiers are shown in black. Teams entering play offs shown in red.
UEFA 10 (6): Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Croatia, England, Germany
Top six runners up in qualifying: Portugal, Scotland, Italy, Sweden, Wales, Turkey
CONMEBOL 4 (4): Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Ecuador
Peru, Colombia, Chile, Paraguay
CAF 4 (2): Senegal, Cameroon, Morocco, Tunisia
Ghana, Algeria
CONCACAF 3 (2): Canada, Mexico, USA
Costa Rica, Panama
AFC 3 (3): Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea
Japan, Australia, UAE
Oceania 0 (1):
New Zealand
Host Nation(s): must qualify
Total of 24 teams automatically qualify
Play off places (18 teams competing for 8 remaining places at finals)
Round 1:
AFC 6th v Oceania 1st UAE v New Zealand
AFC 5th v CONCACAF 5th Australia v Panama
Round 2:
UEFA v CONCACAF 4th Portugal v Costa Rica
UEFA v AFC 4th Scotland v Japan
UEFA v CONMEBOL 7th Italy v Chile
UEFA v CONMEBOL 8th Sweden v Paraguay
UEFA v CAF 5th Wales v Ghana
UEFA v CAF 6th Turkey v Algeria
CONMEBOL 5th v AFC 6th/Oceania 1s Peru v UAE/New Zealand
CONMEBOL 6th v AFC 5th/CONCACAF 5th Colombia v Australia/Panama
* Host nation, Qatar would probably not have qualified for the World Cup if they had to go through the Asian qualifying route.
Potential 32 Finalists
Based on this hypothetical intercontinental play off draw, it would not be a given that more European and South American teams would qualify. Whilst it would be possible for more nations from the two strongest confederations to reach the finals, the opposite might be true. UEFA currently has 13 World Cup places. Under this proposal it could rise to 16. However, it could also reduce to as low as 10. Some of the above ties would likely to be very closely fought; therefore the number of African, Asian or CONCACAF teams could also increase at their expense.
If the highest ranked team prevailed in each play off tie, the following nations would reach the finals: Portugal, Japan, Italy, Sweden, Wales, Algeria, Peru and Colombia. This would mean that in total, Europe would have 14 teams (up from 13), South America would have 6 (up from 4), CONCACAF would have 3 (down from 4), Africa would still have 5 and Asia would have 4 (down from 5).
A potential draw for the group stage at the finals would be stronger than the one at the Qatar World Cup as demonstrated below:
Compare this to the actual group stage draw at Qatar 2022:
The expansion of the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams should ensure that strong football nations like Italy qualify in the future. However, the existing 32 team format is ideal in terms of both quality and numbers. The only thing that should be tweaked is the qualification process.
Regardless of the amount of teams that qualifies per confederation, this intercontinental play off system would go a long way to ensuring that the teams at the World Cup are comprised of the best 32 in the world, whilst also enabling representation from each continent.
By Mark Nicholas
