How will Washington State football fare under new head coach Jimmy Rogers? – Savvy Game Line

At first, it might seem that such a great amount of transition would make it hard for football prognosticators to project outcomes with accuracy yet it is because of those many changes that we are able to find an abundance of clues that help.

All of our Northwest 4 programs (Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State) have had coaching changes in the past three seasons. 

Washington State is the only one with a head coaching change this season so it is the Cougars we will be previewing today.

On December 18, 2024, Jake Dickert announced he was leaving Washington State to become the head coach at Wake Forest. Ten days later, the Cougars hired Jimmy Rogers from South Dakota State of the FCS to take his place.

Rogers has been a college football coach for 12 seasons. None of his experience after being a graduate assistant has been away from South Dakota State, none has been at the FBS level, and only two seasons have been as a head coach.

With such a narrow history, it might seem unlikely that the Savvy prediction system could project the probabilities of his success at Washington State, but there are some factors that have been reliable for Savvy that we can look into.

Coordinator experience at an elite level

One of the most reliable indicators of a coach’s readiness for success at a new program is if he has two or more seasons as a coordinator under an elite coach such as Nick Saban or Kirby Smart. Some of those alums include Dan Lanning of Oregon, Lane Kiffin of Ole Miss, and Mario Cristobal of Miami, FL.

Jimmy Rogers has no such elite training so we need to look for other indicators that suggest he will succeed at WSU.

Rising or falling subsequent seasons

It is common for coaches to take over a program and retain excellence in the first season. It’s the seasons that follow that hold the clues.  

We’ve seen that with Lincoln Riley who started strong at both Oklahoma and again at USC before his results cratered.

We saw it at Oregon when Mark Helfrich took the Ducks to the ‘natty one year and collapsed the next.

Herm Edwards started fast in the NFL and then at Arizona State. Both times, he was fired within three seasons because he couldn’t sustain the program. 

For all three of those coaches, second year results didn’t measure up to the first and the trajectory from there didn’t improve.

Why?

Often, new coaches disrupt or dispirit the atmosphere or they flummox communications when introducing new schemes. More often, they fall because they devalue detail work or they relax personal disciplines and conditioning. All of those lead to underperformance, late game fades, selfish mistakes in critical situations, and frustration among fans.

How will Rogers do at Washington State?

He comes to the Cougars with only two years of head coaching experience. His first season was undefeated. His second season fell three games short.

That is not enough to say he can’t retain WSU’s  current level but it is a factor that bears vigilance. It also produces a modest negative on my Savvy system.

Hiring of coordinators

Another element to consider is who the new head coach hires as his coordinators. It isn’t so much about the accomplishments of the coordinators but more about the coach’s confidence and ability to hire established talent.

An example to consider is UAB hiring former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer in 2023 to become its new head coach. 

Dilfer had all of the name recognition and was considered a “big splash” hire. For reasons I’ve never understood, he didn’t use his big name to hire established coordinators. Instead, he hired one coordinator who had no coordinator experience and another who had never coached anything at the college level.

The results?

UAB hasn’t come close to a bowl game under Dilfer’s leadership despite a history of going to a bowl game every year for over a decade. 

Rogers brought Danny Freund with him from SDSU. Freund spent just two years at South Dakota State and it was only last year that he was named offensive coordinator. 

Also following Rogers from SDSU is defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit who also has just one year as a coordinator.

Because none of these coaches have elite experience, less than three years at their current position levels, no ties to the Northwest, and no experience in FBS, my system has once again assigned a modest negative.

Scheme matching

A primary question in any hiring is whether or not the new coach’s scheme matches that of the previous season.

For Washington State, the answer on the offensive side is a conclusive “no”.

Freund is a pro-style guy moving into a Mike Leach neighborhood. It won’t be easy for him to play well with others if his pro-style scheme can’t get going because his roster was built with a host of Air Raid players who still populate the roster.

Things might go better if coach Rogers could have brought 1700-yard running back Pierre Strong from SDSU through the portal also but Strong jumped to the NFL.

If there is a ray of hope in this offensive transition it is that WSU will be favored in all three of its opening games (Idaho, San Diego State, and North Texas). Winning all three will be critical because the next four are likely losses – at home against Washington, at Colorado State, at Ole Miss, and at Virginia – all in a row.

Recruiting

Despite the many changes at Washington State since the dissolution of the PAC-12, WSU has done a great job in maintaining its recruiting ranking.  Yes, it has been five consecutive years that the Cougar recruiting ranking has fallen, but the drops have been small.

Rogers has done well in recruiting. His coaches retained the 72nd best recruiting class in the nation (247sports.com) which is not a deep drop from last year’s 64th despite a complete overhaul of the coaching staff.

In a nutshell . . .

This year’s schedule is as difficult as 2024. The coaching staff is all new and has no experience in FBS. The scheme is a major departure from the previous decade and not compatible with much of the current roster.  

Overall, Savvygameline says the grade for Washington State’s coaching change is “D”.

That doesn’t mean that this group is not capable of reaching eight wins in 2025 but it does mean there is almost nothing to suggest it will.

What is known is that the Cougars must get off to a 3-0 start to get to a winning season. If WSU has no missteps in the first three games, it could find itself in another bowl game.

By this weekend, my prediction system will have ratings for all coaching changes in FBS for the current season.