The fifth of eight straight ranked opponents for the Tide, and it could scarce loom larger. The No. 6 Crimson Tide (23-5, 12-3) head to face the archrival Vols (23-5, 10-5) in a game that is a must-win if Alabama holds out hope for winning the regular season crown. The Volunteers are almost certainly eliminated, but Alabama needs to win out — including a rematch in Auburn, and then hope the ‘Barn drops another one along the way. That logjam would give Nate Oats a fourth conference title in six seasons and carry a lot of momentum into March.
However, to do that, ‘Bama has to overcome not only its nemesis, but also the bane of its existence: defensive-minded team basketball and SEC road whistles. The Volunteers are a bit more mortal this season, but they’re 14-1 at home for a reason, and have only dropped one game as a favorite all season. The Tide is a sterling 3-1 as a road underdog in the SEC, and has amassed an outstanding 8-2 record on the road. So, if anyone can play off its home floor, it’s this team. Let’s hope we draw an officiating crew that lets us, huh?
Tale of the Tape:
No. 6 Alabama @ No. 5 Tennessee
Spread: Not up yet, but KP has it UT by -5, so expect the line to fall about half a point either side of the ledger.
Opponent KenPom: 5th (25 offense, 1 defense, 346 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 6th (23 offense, 3 defense, 341 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 6th (33 offense, 2 defense, 339 tempo)
Opponent NET: 4 (9-5 Q1, 14-5 Q1/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 3
Opponent Best Win: vs Florida (4)
Opponent Worst Loss: @ Vandy (39)
UA Ken Pom: 6th (1 Off, 39 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (2 Off, 29 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 5th (2 Off, 35 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 6 (10-5 Q1, 17-5 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 1 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 34 (N) Oregon
You know what you’re getting from a Rick Barnes team, as a general rule: Rugby on parquet.
Alabama has faced its share of physical defenses all season, including several borderline ones. But the Vols aren’t even borderline. They foul hard on every possession on both ends of the floor, and as we saw with Ole Miss, they dare the officials to call them all — which never happens. Even less likely is that to happen in Thomson-Boling, which sports the SEC’s most vast home-away foul disparity. That 14-1 home record is starting to make some sense, huh? It is a team that combines the histrionics of Auburn, the aggression of Houston, and the chippiness of Ole Miss, and you get the Vols. The problem is, Alabama lost two of those contests.
For the Tide to prevail in this one, they’re going to have to do several things almost-perfectly:
- Avoid slow starts — Alabama has gotten off to a slow start in three of their previous four outings. Probably not a coincidence that the Tide is .500 over the last two weeks then. But whereas Auburn will give you a chance to shoot your way back in from the perimeter, and Mizzou’s defense isn’t very good as a whole, the same cannot be said about Tennessee. If you fall down early against this team, you’re battling three opponents the rest of the way: The Vols, the officiating, and the clock.
- Force tempo, by any means necessary — Tennessee is the slowest team that Alabama has faced all season. Outside of some weird random draw in the NCAA Tournament, they won’t play anyone that milks the clock like this. Alabama shoots an average of 10 seconds into its possession. Tennessee almost doubles that, and runs it all the way down to about 6.5 seconds. They are deliberative on offense, with their hi-low screen game, and they will force opponents to make hurried last second shots defensively (teams are shooting an average 18.6 seconds into their possession. They don’t want to play fast; they don’t like to play fast; the bench is not deep and they can’t afford to play at pace. By all means, force the issue.
- Sears must be better than Zakai — Mark Sears and Vols’ 5th Year Sr. PG Zakai Zeigler are in some ways mirror images. Both are undersized point-men, and prone to turnover problems. But whereas Zakai is the distributor, Sears is the scorer. If Sears reverts to the starting PG for this game, then a mandate is clear: He doesn’t have to be the best player on the floor, but he has to be better than ZZ. That means he has to score more, turn it over less, find his teammates better, manage the clock better, and win his share of defensive battles — and he has to do it without resorting to Hero Ball. Again, just beat the man in front of you; it’s not one-on-five.
- Take away the secondary Tennessee shooters — The dirty secret about Tennessee is that they have one consistent perimeter shooter, transfer Chaz Lanier. And as goes Lanier, so go the Vols. He’s a volume shooter too, with almost as many attempts as the other three guards combined. He will get his share of shots, and odds are good he will knock them down. But in four of UT’s five losses, the other backcourt shooters were held in check. Let Lanier go off if you must, but make life miserable for Gainey, Mashack and Zeigler beyond the arc.
- Cliff needs to win the post — Felix Okpara has mostly been JAG for the Vols in the post, but he’s good at affecting shots near the rim, and is a competent scorer if you give him space. Just as Mark needs to be better than Zeigler, Omoruyi must win the tough battles down low.
- Find the answer to Igor Milicic — I was very concerned about playing Auburn, because I didn’t see a good matchup for Chaney Johnson at the Forward spot. He is the glue that holds together Johni Broome and that dangerous AU backcourt. Well, there’s another F/PF coming down the pipe on Saturday that can also knock down threes (33%) and takes quite a few of them to boot. But he’s much larger than Chaney. Where is the answer to a 6’10” Euro forward with a perimeter game? You suppose that Grant will draw that assignment, but if so, we must have Good Grant, not stumble-on-his-manly-bits-for-40-minutes Grant. #WhiteOnWhiteViolence. This is a big game for him against a big player. It could also be the opportunity for Aiden Sherrell to grow up in a big way…but whoever draws Milicic needs to limit the damage he does. It’s not Okpara down low that concerns me, Gainey getting hot from outside, or Lanier dropping a 30-burger. No, it’s yet another Swing Forward having another 20-point night and opening up the entire offense for the Vols. It beat Alabama against Ole Miss and Auburn. It almost beat Alabama in Fayetteville. It got them ran off the court in CoMo. It cannot happen in Knoxville.
- Hit your free throws — Sounds elementary, eh? This is likely to come down to a free throw shooting contest (see also Texas A&M). The Volunteers foul a ton, they turn it over a ton. And since UT games tend to have about 10 fewer possessions than normal contests, each trip down the floor matters more, especially if Tennessee gets to set up in the halfcourt and bleed clock. It is incumbent upon Alabama to shoot better than Tennessee from the stripe; the Vols are not a great FT shooting team either, so who hits the most from the line may determine the winner.
How To Watch
ESPN 3 Central, Saturday 1 March 25
Prediction
Alabama has been a very good team on the road; netting 80% of your SEC road games is superb. And this is a more mortal version of the Vols than we’ve seen before. Lanier is very streaky out there — and if he’s having a bad night, the Vols do as well. Poor shooting from the perimeter and/or FT line cost them in all five of their losses. Does Alabama have anyone defensively that can do that for 40 minutes? Against Lanier, may not. So the question then becomes: “Does Alabama have any answers for Milicic?”
This is where I become somewhat sour. I think Alabama can hold its own in the post and on the outside, but I don’t think there’s a bigger mismatch on the floor in this one than Milicic vs. Alabama’s power forwards. In turn, it makes everything else that Tennessee does a lot more efficient. Finally, I hate to sound the klaxon here, but that home-away foul disparity that Tennessee lives off of looms large in my mind given the state of officiating this year.
That’s unfortunate, and it’s also what I think winds up costing ‘Bama a road game in a venue where they typically do not play well. I’d love nothing more than to be wrong. Trust me.
Tennessee 79
Alabama 72
Hope for the best,
Roll Tide.
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