Seems like this is turning into Washington Week here on the blog. This time, however, it’s Dulles that gets some love.
United’s Washington/Dulles hub has always been something of a red-headed stepchild. It has long seemed unloved, and we’ve all heard calls to shut it down over the years, but those calls are misguided and really always have been. United has signaled that the Dulles hub would get growth, and that is happening. I looked over Cirium data to give you a sense of where things are heading.
United Washington/Dulles Departures by Month
Data via Cirium, includes Continental pre-merger
There really is a tale of two time periods here. From the mid-2000s until just before the pandemic, Dulles was a story of shrinking and upgauging. The number of flights plunged with July 2017 having over 20 percent fewer flights than July 2004. That is, of course, only part of the story.
Back in the mid-2000s, United was just trying to stabilize itself. Atlantic Coast had decided to go it alone instead of acting as United’s primary regional partner at the airport. United scrambled to quickly replace ACA’s capacity, but it was then forced to compete with the newly-christened Independence Air. None of it was sustainable, and at the beginning of 2006, Independence shut down.
That gave United a brief respite before the Great Recession further threw the industry into crisis. The decline continued through the Continental merger and into the mid-2010s. That’s when a strategy shift happened.
United, like many other airlines, decided to upgauge. It rapidly increased gauge at Dulles peaking at nearly 115 seats per departure in summer 2017, well above the mid-80 to mid-90 range it had been in. But then, the pandemic hit, and the airline came out very differently on the other side.
You can already see that the seats per departure climbed, but that wasn’t just from added widebodies as you might have guessed. It was also from the reduction in Essential Air Service and small airplane flying due to the pilot shortage. The number of destinations East of the Rockies dropped to the lowest level in decades.
United Destinations by Region from Washington/Dulles
Data via Cirium, includes Continental pre-merger
While those short-haul markets suffered, others were on the rebound. As you can see in the chart above, the beginning of the pandemic brought growth in Florida, Latin America, and the Caribbean. In some places at some airlines, that was a temporary surge, but United has found success in the region. It has kept more destinations, at least seasonally.
But Europe, or really, the Atlantic, has really taken off for the airline once borders reopened. Just look at what has been added:
- Summer 2021 – Accra and Athens
- Winter 2021/2022 – Lagos
- Summer 2022 – Amman (temporarily suspended due to war)
- Winter 2022/2023 – Cape Town
- Summer 2023 – Berlin
- Summer 2025 – Dakar, Nice, Venice
Summer of 2025 is going to be a big year for Dulles with a large increase in flying, but it is not yet the long-rumored fifth bank for the airline.
United Departures per Hour at Dulles
Data via Cirium
So far, the growth is all within the four existing banks with that morning domestic bank really surging in size. Meanwhile, over the Atlantic, the two banks just keep strengthening in numbers.
United Transatlantic Departures From Dulles
Data via Cirium
With additional restrictions going into place at Washington/National after the recent accident, Dulles may see an even more important increase in prominence out of necessity. And it is finally getting some facility improvement to help make that easier to achieve.
A new Concourse E is being built — the current layout has the main terminal, then Concourse A/B, and then Concourse C/D. Concourse E will be built on top of the people mover station and will replace the ground-loading United Express gates in Concourse A. Those will be replaced with more functional gates for other airlines.
One this stub is done, maybe Dulles will actually decide to replace the so-called Temporary Midfield Concourse, Concourse C/D where most of United’s operations fly. There’s already a public transit connection, and there’s plenty of runway capacity at the airport, so the pieces are coming together. If United really does want to flex Dulles, the time may be right.
