Will he or won’t he? What next for Infantino as confederations plan for two futures, one with him and one without

August 10 – The Open Letter from AFC, Concacaf and UEFA leaves FIFA president Gianni Infantino isolated and with very few institutional cards to play in his desperate bid to hang on to his job.

The letter talks of Infantino’s deception, lack of trust, lack of integrity and a failure in leadership both of his staff and in his duty to serve FIFA’s membership, the national FAs. The letter also makes it clear that football is not his possession but “belongs to the players, the fans, the clubs, the Member Associations and every institution entrusted with safeguarding its future.”

Insiders say the message being to Infantino is that he has the opportunity to resign and leave his position with some dignity. Such is the opposition to Infantino that the desire is for him to do this immediately and not seek re-election in March.

If he doesn’t resign it will get uglier and nastier.

For Infantino leaving now could prevent any potential criminal proceedings being brought against him regarding the back-door deal that he had done over the FIFA rights sell-off with Thrive Capital. A private equity that has close ties to US president Donald Trump via his son-in-law Jared Kushner.

UEFA has requested that all documentation, emails and messaging between the parties is retained. The AFC and Concacaf have backed up that request.

But Infantino will feel he can still find a support base amongst some of his previous supporters. Africa and South America have generally been compliant when it comes to his requirements, and Qatar were very quick to give their support to a FIFA president they have invested heavily in.

That could backfire substantially on the Gulf nation that has re-engineered its country and economy to host major sports events, but could very quickly find itself friendless and eventless as Infantino’s support dissipates.

In the Open Letter the confederations made it clear that decisions that have been taken on competition expansion, hosting and calendar would not be revisited. It also emphasized that grant money to federations would not be under threat. If anything it could be increased post Infantino.

The message is that there are multiple options on the table for federations and that they are strictly in accordance with FIFA’s governance framework and statutes. The only real option for Infantino is to leave.

But if Infantino does stay the confederations are prepared to go to the next level and carry out their threat of non-participation in FIFA competitions. Non-competing in FIFA events does not necessarily mean a reduction in international opportunities for FAs and players.

Insiders say that the three Confederations have already begun preliminary discussions around the organising of competitions among themselves. This would provide meaningful playing opportunity and mean there was no impact on the players during the crisis.

It could also provide AFC and Concacaf nations (and particularly their leading nations) with more of the coveted opportunities to play Europe’s best that they don’t get under FIFA competitions.

That would of course impact Mexico, one of Concacaf’s loudest voices for more and different international opposition. Mexico were a surprise backer of Infantino who is understood to have promised them a Club World Cup.

If Infantino decides to try and hang on and battlelines become even deeper drawn, federations will have to decide between the triple-alliance that has a football ecosystem that will roll on whatever, and a world governing body that has become a loose wheel when it comes to football competitions, but whose strongest asset is that it has a lot of money.

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