7 “some brief fun” charts from the Eastern Illinois blowout

Yeah, I do have some nuanced feelings on these “cupcake” games. It would be great to live in a world when polls and the College Football Playoff Committee actually did respect strength of schedule, then reward big wins in a way to actually encourage more meaningful inter-P4-conference games (and just more interesting football in general).

But that’s not the world we live in: we’re in the one where Texas is essentially out of the playoff for daring to schedule Ohio State out of conference. (Assuming CFP behaviors don’t change, can we cancel our future series with them, please?). And we’re also in the one where I wish we’d just played some G5 team in Week 1 instead of FSU.

So, in the here-and-now, I have to enjoy these games. We won big! We got to see some young players play! We didn’t have to cross our fingers to see if Germie would bail us out on 3rd and long in the 4th quarter! And given how the rest of the Tide’s schedule is, I’ll gladly take a game like this in 2025.

The ‘usual graphs’ and the box score look hilarious this week — I mean, it was a 56-0 blowout over a wayyy overmatched FCS opponent — so instead let’s just pluck the charts that show some interesting developments.

For one, Alabama’s run game was steadier than the pass, and we leaned it on it throughout the game. Sure, both ended up averaging out at absolutely charming >60% SR’s, but the passing game took some twists and turns along the way before catching back up in the third quarter. (Queue the “backup QB conspiracy,” except which would you even choose?)

Really, this trend basically amounts to Ty missing a pass late in the first quarter, then dumping off to A.K. Dear twice for two “unsuccessful catches” (too short). But it’s remarkable that the running game, albeit against a very overmatched defense, was very, very steady.

Let’s take a look at the cast and crew:

That is a loooong rushers list!

Still surprisingly — in a bad way — we only had two explosive rushes on the day, including the one from QB Austin Mack. What is going on there? It’s such a strange whiplash from the Jalen Milroe era, where “explosive QB rush” was sometimes the only play working.

For the first time I can recall, we actually had fewer receivers in this chart than the number of rushers in the other. Usually you expect something like a 1.5-2x ratio of receivers to rushers.

And the first name up on this list is a surprising one: TE Marshall Pritchett is apparently (suddenly) an important target for us now that Josh Cuevas is out for an undetermined amount of time. (So much for my untimely celebrations of his last few games). Assuming we do see Pritchett against Auburn, hopefully he’s similarly able to pull some of these down and convert for us.

Also from the TE position group, we saw RS Senior Brody Dalton come down with 3/3 Successful catches. Freshman Kaleb Edwards also had an explosive grab but wasn’t seen much otherwise. (We really need some of these other TE to get healthy). Another RS Senior MJ Chirgwin (technically a WR) also recorded a successful catch. Roll Tide, Seniors!

Otherwise, it was a deeper rotation of the WR’s than usual — Isaiah Horton and Jaylen Mbakwe (1 successful + 1 explosive catch each), Cole Adams (2), Rico Scott (1), and Ryan Williams (1X).

And then RB’s Kevin Riley and A.K. Dear caught passes out of the backfield (though Dear’s didn’t work out, at least by efficiency). Kevin Riley in particular had a strong game again: hopefully he’s turning another corner and our offensive staff is figuring out better ways to use him. He’s had a few big catches especially (the TD vs. Mizzou comes to mind), so it feels like there’s continued opportunity with him.

Hey, let’s just do all the player charts!

There are plenty of caveats — hail Mary INT, vanilla offense, likely some ‘looking ahead’ — but Ty Simpson had a so-so day given competition. He did complete 4 explosive passes (plus 5 more successful ones) in only 16 passes (25% XR), which would win a lot of games. But these once-rare interceptions are rearing their head at the worst time of the season.

Backups Austin Mack and Keelon Russell seemed to “trade drives” from there. Mack came in first and looked good — I mean, that’s 5/5 Successful Passes! — but interestingly Russell got more attempts (with a few unsuccessful ones, but also an explosive, in there). You have to wonder if these guys are basically “both QB2,” which genuinely makes me wonder what who would. go in if, say, Ty got hurt or (shudders) did poorly enough against Auburn to get pulled.

Hopefully we don’t have to see much of either, but I can’t help but be optimistic about both guys. (With that optimism for Austin Mack, perhaps, being more like “he’ll be a great 2026 QB for someone out of the portal”).

Hey look, the Bama defense did a better job stopping the opponent on short yardage! Oh, wait … actually, the opponent never got any short yardage attempts, which is bonkers. I guess the Panthers’ only first downs were from longer distance (including that embarrassing 3-and-15 early on).

Eastern Illinois’ Rush/Pass trends chart almost looks like a piece of abstract art. Think we can auction it to pay for the #refunds?

Truly a sad and beautiful thing here, with the rare successful play lifting a Success Rate line before letting it drift, like a well-made paper airplane, gently to the earth. (In the end, all things perish).

📈 All the charts from this game are here

Otherwise, who are we kidding: it was a cupcake game! Really, we’re all thinking about, in no particular order, is some combination of:

Roll Tide, and enjoy your holiday. You’ll hear from me next weekend (hopefully the happy version).