Xs and Oats: Battered ‘Bama ends its season on the road, in a rematch against SEC Champ Auburn

Hard to believe that on Valentine’s Day these two (alleged) rivals were meeting in Tuscaloosa as No. 1 vs. No. 2, the first time that’s happened in the SEC, much less the series. Since then, the worm has truly turned. Auburn has gone 5-1 down the stretch, losing only a relatively meaningless road game to the No. 20 Aggies on A&M’s Senior Night — after Auburn had already sewn up the SEC regular season crown.

The Tide has been not so good.

After dropping a nine-point home decision to the Tigers, ‘Bama turned around then was blown off the floor by Mizzou in CoMo. Then the Tide lost again, in an imminently winnable road game at Tennessee, decided by stupid decisions and piss-poor free throw shooting. For an encore to the Denny’s Grand Slam of Sadness, the Tide finally was outhustled and outworked again, at home on Senior Night, as said senior class decided to be upstaged and outplayed almost across the board by the visiting Gators. But, hey, at least Mark Sears decided to also take a third of ‘Bama’s shots!

So, we have two teams heading in very different directions. One, with nothing to play for — Auburn is a 1-seed no matter what. The other has every reason to play well, but just can’t seem to find their legs, their interior defense, their touch at the free throw line, their effort in the post, or their basketball IQ in critical moments.

‘Bama fans would hope the revenge-minded Tide could perhaps catch the ‘Barn napping as they look ahead to March. But that won’t be the case. Alabama is 2-3 OTR vs. Pearl, with two bad beatings. And with this Auburn class of Super Seniors seeking home crowd plaudits against apparently the only opponent the Tigers actually care about, good luck catching the Barn slipping. They’re going to come shot out of a cannon, especially after a loss.

And I greatly fear that there’s just not much ‘Bama can do to stop them.

Nevertheless, let’s talk Tide-Tigers

Tale of the Tape:
No. 7 Alabama (23-7, 12-5 3rd) @ No. 2 Auburn (27-3, 14-3 1st)

Spread: Auburn -8.5

Opponent KenPom: 2nd (1 offense, 14 defense, 130 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 3rd (2 offense, 12 defense, 109 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 3rd (1 offense, 12 defense, 124 tempo)
Opponent NET: 2 (15-3 Q1, 21-3 Q1/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 1
Opponent Best Win: @ Houston (3)
Opponent Worst Loss: @ Texas A&M (20)

UA Ken Pom: 6th (3 Off, 39 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (3 Off, 31 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 5th (3 Off, 33 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 6 (10-7 Q1, 18-7 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 30 (N) Oregon

Look, we get it. Morale is a bit low at the moment. A lot has changed over the past three weeks, and none of it has been for the good.

But, there are some positives to take going into this game from that first meeting, as well as things ‘Bama can do better, and a few they need to add to their arsenal.

• Keep Doing What You’re Doing Against Broome — Cliff had one of his half-dozen good games in Tuscaloosa, leveraging his big body into making Broome become a jump shooter rather than a layup machine. Broome was harassed into just a 43% night from the floor, which is low for a big man. He had a sub-20 point night. He was also pushed out beyond the arc early. It’s regrettable that Broome hit 20% of his SEC total threes in that game, but that’s exactly what you want to do: Make a 6’10” PF/C take those or give the ball up. And if he nets those shots, or someone hits another jumper after the ball has been forced out of his hands, then GG. Both of those things did happen, but it’s hard to fault the post strategy or execution, really. The one knock was that Alabama got outworked far too much on the offensive glass vs. Broome. He’s one of the nation’s best at cleaning up misses though, so it was always going to be a hard assignment. Still, if you told Nate Oats that 25% of Broome’s total attempts would be from the perimeter, that he would go 3/9 from the free throw line, and that Broome would be held to 17 points, I think he’d take that 10 times out of 10.
• Keep Doing What You’re Doing Against Pettiford (on the perimeter*) — One of our biggest fears going into the first meeting was the impact of Freshman phenom Tahaad Pettiford. He is such a streaky shooter, and if you let him get going, he can drop 20+ on your head with ease. For my money, the Fr. All-American to-be is probably the most dangerous 6th Man in the country. Alabama did a phenomenal job against him, however…on the perimeter. The Tide harassed the freshman into no assists, two turnovers, a 1-for-5 night from beyond the arc, and just one rebound. But — and it’s a huge but — the Tide did a piss-poor job stopping interior penetration by Pettiford, and he went 5-for-5 on his other floor shots, almost all of them point-blank layup attempts. The guards have to be a lot better for the full possession…not just from beyond 21 feet.
• Keep Harassing Cardwell — the 7’1” Barner Goon was rendered an absolute no-factor in Iron Bowl I, fouling out with just two measly points and a trio of rebounds. Bro had a Bad Nick Pringle game. It was a genuinely impressive group effort to nullify the other post presence. More of that, please.

That said, there are some things Alabama has to do better, too.

• Stop Fouling the Guards — Auburn is, outside of Houston, the best shooting elite team in the country, and they’re the nation’s most efficient offense for a reason. Auburn rolls four players who all hit 40% or above from beyond the arc, and a fifth flirting with it. Naturally, they are also elite free throw shooters, with four of them all above 87% from the charity stripe (and a pair at 90%). In the first meeting, ‘Bama surrendered 16 trips to the line to this group. Auburn hit 15 of them. See that note about Pettiford above? It applies here in spades: You cannot just defend the arc, try to play catchup as they’re breezing to the basket, and then take a halfhearted swipe at the ball as they’re going to the rim. And you cannot fall for Chad Baker Mazara’s histrionics and flopping. Unlike some teams I could mention, Auburn actually makes their trips to the free throw line matter.
• Find an Answer to Chaney Johnson — Alabama’s interior defense has been so damn bad this year because Alabama is getting cooked by forwards. Sure, elite centers have had good nights. But by and large, it has been those combo 3-4 players that are demolishing ‘Bama. It’s been an issue all season, and one that has particularly been glaring in SEC. This is where the loss of Reid is felt perhaps most acutely, because Chaney Johnson is the forward that ties together a POTY candidate to the best backcourt in the country. Alabama can win with Broome having a great night. Alabama can find a path forward with the backcourt having a great night. Alabama cannot win with Auburn finding balanced scoring at all five spots on the floor — as they did in the first meeting, with every starter in the teens, as well as Pettiford off the bench.
• The Usual Trio of ‘Bama Problems — Once again, the skipping needle on the Gump Phonograph keeps repeating the same mantra over and over again: 1. No hero ball, Mark. That crap that happened on Wednesday can’t repeat itself in Auburn. There is no single player on a ball motion offense that needs to be taking 24 shots from the floor. 2. No slow starts. Alabama crawled into a 9-0 deficit vs. the ‘Barn in the first go ‘round, and that would be the final margin on a night where Alabama shot well from the stripe, rebounded well, and did so many other things decently. And, 3. Make your free throws. Even if Alabama somehow stops Johnson from abusing them, and neutralizes Pettiford off the bench, and takes away Cardwell, and minimizes the impact of Broome, there are the same ugly bugaboos of self-inflicted woes that are continuing to cost ‘Bama games — and could cost the Tide this one, as well. The worst part? They’re entirely mental.
• Have confidence in your stroke — Alabama was miserable against the Tigers from the perimeter on February 15th. It’s a miracle that game was close, looking at the shot chart. That can’t happen on Saturday and expect an outcome that will be even remotely competitive. Alabama shot better against better perimeter defenders Tennessee and Florida. Just make your league average 35.1%, and the Tide wins that game. If ‘Bama hits their league average 78.3% from the free throw line, they beat Tennessee too. You’re a team of shooters. Find your legs, find your confidence.

BRB, going to go bleach my eyes now…and maybe my soul, as well.

How To Watch

ESPN, 1:30 Central, Saturday 8 March 25

Prediction

Of the games that I circled a preseason hard loss around on my calendar, this and Mizzou rated the highest. The Tide just plays poorly in some venues, and some teams really get up for a visit by the Tide. Against no one and nowhere is that more applicable than when ‘Bama faces lil’ bro in West Georgia.

Starting PG Denver Jones may be out. That would be a blow for the Tigers, sure. But that still leaves Cardwell, Kelly, Baker-Mazara, Chaney, Pettiford…and the Wooden finalist. Not much has changed about the calculus of this one since the first meeting. Auburn still has the best starting five in the country. Auburn still has the best backcourt in the country. Auburn still has one of the best sixth men in the country. Auburn still has high morale with everything to play for, and legitimate hopes of cutting them down.

I just don’t like this Alabama team’s headspace at the moment. I don’t like their dead legs. I don’t like the brutal schedule or the thin bench or the regression by Sears or the faith we placed in impact transfers that haven’t really panned out.

Stated simply, I don’t like Alabama’s chances to do all of those things above, consistently, for 40 minutes. That’s what it will take to beat a team that is a true title contender. Alabama is elite, but Alabama can’t say they’re a true title contender at the moment, not given its play in February.

I don’t think Auburn is going to be particularly mercifully in reminding us of that fact either.

You know how much I love this program and how much I hope it succeeds, how I want nothing but the best for this team. But I also owe you a duty of candor, and I suspect Alabama gets their asses collectively kicked in a game that is not as close as the final score. Not on Senior Night, not in Auburn.

The thing about bullying little bro is that one day he turns around and pops you in the mouth. I think that counter-punch is coming Saturday in Alabama’s worst loss of the season.

Auburn 96
Alabama 81

Hope for the best,
Roll Tide.

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