Much, much worse.
The secret to success in e-commerce is getting a customer to a second order. From there, the customer has significantly better long-term value.
Look at the blue line in the image above. These are first-time buyers … even at the very moment the customer purchases for the first time, the customer only has a 23% chance of buying in the next year. From there, the customer continually becomes less responsive. This is why having a Welcome Action Stream is so darn important … your odds of converting a first-time buyer are best at months 0/1/2/3 after a first purchase.
After a second purchase, the customer is reasonably responsive. In the image above, a 24 month 2x buyer is as responsive as a 1 month 1x buyer.
In my projects, I create Action Segments. For twelve-month buyers, here’s what the segments look like:
- Elite = 75%+ Chance of Buying Again Next Year.
- Loyal = 60% – 74% Chance of Buying Again Next Year.
- Quality = 40% – 59% Chance of Buying Again Next Year.
- Average = 20% – 39% Chance of Buying Again Next Year.
- Struggling = 0% – 19% Chance of Buying Again Next Year.
It’s easy to see that the first-time buyer starts in the Average segment, then quickly fades into the Struggling segment. You immediately need a Welcome Action Stream to prevent the customer from falling into Struggling territory … at which point the newly acquired customer is already at risk of being lost.
