Back to our table from yesterday, reviewing customers with two life-to-date purchases, measuring how they perform in the next month based on their recency and based on whether the customer visited your website in the past month.
Did you do you homework assignment from yesterday?
Look at recency = 12 months. If the customer last purchased 12 months ago, the customer is more responsive than at recency = 2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/10/11 months ago. That’s some serious seasonality going on.
Now look at what happens if the customer is at recency = 12 months AND the customer visited your website last month? That customer … has a 16.0% chance of buying next month. It’s the customer most likely to purchase in the entire table.
Is your old-school RFM segmentation system able to see that happening?
The job of a marketer is to get seasonal buyers to the website JUST BEFORE the season of interest is about to happen. And if the customer actually cares enough to visit, you kick off an Action Stream of unique marketing activities tailored to that individual customer.
