
At any time these companies could be usurped by some new tech.
The ones that follow could be replaced as well.
I prefer to be amongst the picks and shovels – a reference to gold mining in the 19 Century nearly everywhere, including California and New Zealand :
The historical parallel between the 1840s California (and NZ’s own Gold Rush in the latter part of the same century – my contribution! ) Gold Rush and the modern AI Revolution is one of the most accurate frameworks for understanding where value is captured during a technological boom.
During the mid-1800s, hundreds of thousands of miners rushed to California to find gold. A few struck it rich, but the vast majority left empty-handed. However, the merchants who sold shovels, pickaxes, denim jeans, and wheelbarrows built massive, predictable fortunes.
In the AI era, the same structural dynamic is repeating: companies building the foundational hardware and infrastructure are printing money, while the companies building user-facing apps are taking the massive risks.
Even though ai is risky it is here, we have to deal with it AND PURSUE it.
I chose not to sink my money into those areas i deem risky, like some of the ones above that I started the story with – because of the sheer magnitude of their ups and downs – on the stockmarket – AND what is perceived as value.
YOU cant go too wrong with Warren Buffetts advice, look for stocks with fundamental qualties, a low PE, low debt, increasing revenues over time – Warrens time and my time might be diff – he would be talking 20 or more years, I would be talking a min of 5 years – it is the ai that has speeded things up in IMHO.
With this in mind you too could be allready primed for the second coming.
