by Dennis Crouch
Across the 1.5 million published utility applications filed from 2015 through 2018, 76% eventually issued as patents. A first non-final rejection moves that to 75%. A first final rejection moves it to 69%. The chart above plots this for each action the Office takes: the probability that an application eventually grants, conditioned on the Office having taken that step.
Most applications never get that far. Of the 1.5 million, only about 42% receive a final office action. The ordinary path through the Patent Office is short and undramatic: a non-final rejection, a response, an allowance. Nearly everyone is rejected at least once, though, with first action allowance at about 10%.
