The nationwide redistricting arms race is growing increasingly unpredictable. Courts are knocking down maps. Republicans are breaking with President Trump. Democrats are finding new states where they will try to pick up seats.
But there is one constant that will soon define the final contours of the redistricting battle: the calendar.
States have clear filing deadlines for candidates to get on the ballot for primary elections. Legislatures have the ability to change both these deadlines and the dates of the primaries — many did in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic. If state legislators decided to take the highly partisan route of a mid-decade gerrymander instead of waiting for the regular assessment that happens every 10 years, they would probably be more than willing to also pass a law moving the dates and deadlines before a planned redistricting session.
But once these deadlines have passed, they are very difficult to undo; there is little known modern precedent for a legislature to throw out already cast votes in a primary election because an opportunity to draw a more partisan map has arisen. And creating a new filing deadline for candidates could cause significant confusion, invite litigation and overburden already overworked and underfunded election officials….
The pressure of the primary calendar may be most acute when it comes to the biggest unknown in the redistricting wars — the fate of the Voting Rights Act. Oral arguments before the Supreme Court in October indicated that the justices were poised to weaken a key provision of the civil rights law by sharply limiting the ability of lawmakers to use race as a factor in drawing voting maps.
This could lead to widespread redistricting efforts across the South, where that provision has defined maps for decades. An analysis by The New York Times found that Republicans could gain as many as a dozen seats if the court struck down that provision of the Voting Rights Act.
Since the case is technically a rehearing from the previous term, the court could rule as soon as this winter, though that would be unusual.
The court’s term lasts until early summer, but if it waits until late June to release a ruling, many states would be unable to draw maps before the 2026 election — and primary elections would have already been held.
Even if a ruling comes soon, getting on the ballot isn’t always as simple as a candidate submitting a form and payment. Some states require signatures or petitions from districts before candidates can appear on the ballot. This only adds to the time crunch….
