The structural flaw in the ceasefire deal was visible from the outset. The MoU rested on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in return for the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil — almost the only lifeline sustaining the Iranian economy. But nothing in the agreement resolved the question of Lebanon.
Iran had made clear that one of its core objectives was to prevent further Israeli strikes against Hezbollah — an attempt to salvage its proxy network in the region. Israel, for its part, cannot permanently suspend its right to self-defence as the price of a US diplomatic agreement. Reports suggest the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was “fuming” over the MoU agreement, which Israel was not party to when it was drafted and signed.
Leaders abandon restraint not simply when threats grow, but when holding back stops feeling like a way of acting at all. Restraint survives only while it seems to be working, points towards a better future and feels like a choice rather than something imposed. When those conditions fail, restraint starts to look like paralysis and escalation becomes the only way of restoring control.
For Trump, all three of these conditions have collapsed. Iran is attacking commercial shipping despite the deal. Oil prices are climbing as the US midterm elections approach. And every Iranian strike demonstrates that Tehran, not Washington, is setting the tempo and direction of the ceasefire. This dynamic is fundamentally unsustainable for the US.
For Netanyahu, this collapse is not a failure but a confirmation of his lack of conviction in the ceasefire deal. Israel never accepted the premise of the MoU. Its security establishment has maintained throughout that the war with Iran was paused, not concluded, and that any framework granting Iranian-backed forces impunity in Lebanon was unsustainable.
Shortly after the deal was signed in June, Netanyahu said that Israel’s “struggle is not over” and its military will “remain in these security zones for as long as necessary to defend our country”
