AIPAC, AI, and Crypto-Funded Democrats Underperform Democrats Who Reject Corporate PAC Money

With the midterm elections less than four months away, some analysts are already predicting it will be the most expensive midterm cycle in U.S. history, with spending expected to reach $10.8 billion over the cycle to support or oppose candidates across the ballot.

This year, outside spending money has broken through in Democratic primaries like never before. In New York’s 12th Congressional District, artificial intelligence (AI) super PACs poured more than $27 million into the June 23 primary. And in Michigan’s Senate primary, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its affiliates have spent close to $30 million backing Representative Haley Stevens against Abdul El-Sayed, their largest ever investment in a single race. 

Already, cryptocurrency, AI, Big Tech, and online betting corporations have collectively spent $294 million in political races this cycle, more than half of the $517 million spent by corporations overall.

While financial support from an outside group can help fill the coffers for a general election campaign, taking money from an unpopular source, such as AIPAC or AI companies, can also be costly to a candidate’s reputation. 

To take a deeper look at how sources of outside funding affect candidate viability, Data for Progress conducted a conjoint survey experiment analyzing how funding sources impact support for candidates in a general election matchup. 

We find that, compared with a Democratic candidate who rejects outside PAC money, Democratic candidates who take money from AIPAC, AI companies, cryptocurrency companies, and pharmaceutical companies perform significantly worse against a Republican candidate averaged across all funding sources.

In our experiment, each survey respondent was shown a “Candidate A” and a “Candidate B.” Each matchup included a Republican and a Democrat, with the candidates’ source of outside funding randomized across 10 different groups. In addition, we tested a candidate who “rejects all financial support from outside industry groups and PACs.”