Friday Flash: Did I miss anything?
I’ve been checked-out for about a month. I missed some things, huh?
Let’s start with Compass’s proposed acquisition of Anywhere.
The dominant narratives that have emerged in the past few weeks seem to be:
This is the tipping point from which we will descend into a shattered marketplace defined by private listings.
Or:
This is the conclusive consolidation event, one that portends a real estate brokerage landscape as dismal as Verizon/AT&T.
I think both of these are off the mark.
Regarding private listings, the thing I keep saying, and the thing most leaders competing with Compass don’t want to admit publicly, is that unless you have geographically concentrated market share, you really have no effective response to the Compass Private Exclusives play, no matter how big you are. The counter to this assertion is that many brokerages and franchisors with diffused market share will begin (and indeed already are) collaborating on collective private networks. But making this work assumes a lot, and overlooks an obvious collective action problem.
So I don’t think this deal sends the industry into private listings free-for-all. It just means Compass gets extra momentum on this front in markets where Anywhere’s company-owned stores compound their share. Getting agents affiliated with franchisees — who make up the large majority of “Anywhere’s agents” — is possible, but is a much harder, and longer, play.
As for the consolidation narrative, while the numerical reality of a combined entity with ~20% national market share is undeniable, the on-the-ground reality is messy. The headline-driven “game over” angle on this is both premature and ill-informed. This isn’t telecom. It’s a loosey-goosey, fluid ecosystem wherein consolidation can be likened to an effort to combine disparate lumps of Jello.
When Compass bought Christie’s in late 2024, my first thought was, “They’re becoming Anywhere.” That is now a pending reality. The question is, can Compass do Anywhere better than Anywhere could? Robert Reffkin and his board are betting they can.
…
Zillow did an integration with ChatGPT.
There were concerns, accusations, and deep textual readings of NAR’s IDX policy.
I think this is overblown. (If you’re sensing a theme with this post, you’re not wrong.)
First of all, the actual app is pretty rudimentary — effectively the old web equivalent of an iframe. The fact that this is all it is is an IDX policy success, not a failure.
The win for Zillow is that they’re on the platform first, not Redfin, Homes.com, or Realtor.com. Whether or not this is a transformational moment is anybody’s guess, but Zillow’s got a beachhead in case it turns out to be one.
Personally, I think home search is the least interesting thing that will impact the homebuying process.
…
OK, back to Compass. They launched a buyer demand tool this week. Smart.
I’ve always thought the chief focus of most brokerages and brands (and many vendors) is to give agents things that will help them rock a listing presentation. If a new piece of software, or a new program, doesn’t serve that purpose, think hard about doing it.
Every Compass agent now walks into a listing presentation with:
- Compass Concierge (upfront money for prepping a listing)
- Compass Three-Phase Marketing Plan (look, you know I find this wrong in many ways, but it is a differentiated marketing story)
- Compass Buyer Demand
If you’re competing against Compass, it’s time to reexamine your toolset and value prop.
…
Debra Kamin of The New York Times is the reporter the real estate industry loves to hate.
But this week she published a piece that captures all that is beautiful about this business — the stories of three agents who came from nothing to make it big. Two of them are immigrants. One is a recovering addict.
There’s plenty to criticize in our space. But the truth that always belied the talk of cartels and rip-offs is this: The residential real estate industry is a roaring engine of social and economic mobility, a chaotic arena of American striving with few equals, a place for second chances and cold starts, a platform where those born without advantage can fight their way upward.
So thank you, Debra.
Enjoy your weekend.
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