Those in football often say you should not really start looking at the table until you are 10 games in.
But, by the time you hit that 10-game marker, you can begin to get an idea of where teams may end up. It’s not a surefire certainty, of course, but as a rule of thumb, it’s generally a good barometer for the kind of season a team might go on to have.
Now, Everton sit 6th, and a 6th-place finish is probably beyond reasonable expectations this season. So, perhaps 10 games in is a good time to look at how Everton are performing when measured against their underlying metrics.
I’m well aware that xG and xG against (xGA) is not for everybody, but at the end of the day, it’s the best method we have for measuring the quality of chances teams are both creating and conceding.
Opta are renowned as the flag bearers in this regard, and they — and several other data modelling organisations — have come up with “expected points”, which is a way of measuring where a team ‘should’ be based on the quality of chances they have created against the quality of opportunities they have given up.
And while Everton sit 6th, according to the underlying metrics, they should actually be 11th. They have taken 2.4 points more than would have been anticipated.
That makes Everton the Premier League’s 5th-biggest overperformers, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. The teams that have overperformed by more are Arsenal (+6.8), Brighton (+4.7), Chelsea (+3.1) and Liverpool (+2.6).
While Chelsea have blown hot and cold, Liverpool are coming along steadily under Andoni Iraola. Arsenal look like the clear favourites to win the title, and Brighton are (fairly) the flavour of the month. But these teams are also overperforming their underlying metrics. The question becomes: Can they sustain it?
Everton are not overperforming in every metric, either. They have actually scored fewer goals than they should have done, by roughly 2 goals. But Everton rank 12th for xG for, and they also rank 12th for actual goals scored.
When it comes to the chances they have given up, Everton rank 10th for xG against (14.2), but they have only conceded 10 goals – only 4 teams have shipped fewer goals in the top flight this term. That 4.2 overperformance ranks as the 3rd highest in the division, behind Leeds United (4.7) and Brighton (6.6).
WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN?
Essentially, the data is pretty clear: Everton are performing like a mid-table team in attack and defence. However, their ability to outperform their xGA — which was also the case last term — has them slightly higher than would be expected based on these metrics.
That’s a case of it being still only 10 games into the campaign and, as we know from last season, eventually it can begin to catch up with you when there is a “return to the mean”.
David Moyes isn’t exactly renowned for his front-foot play but there is a clear argument to say that Everton have looked better when they have played with a bit more freedom, mainly by having that level of intensity to their play.
Naturally, that is going to open things up a bit more at the back but, even playing pragmatically, Everton give up chances anyway.
With excellent defenders like James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite, operating ahead of a top-class goalkeeper, then Everton have a solid base. Don’t be reckless, but Everton can afford to concede a few more goals if they are able to create, and convert, more chances in return.
In summary, then; so far, so decent. There’s lots of scope for improvement, but plenty to be positive about, too. It’s something to build on, that’s for sure.
All Stats are from Opta Analyst
