The Fantasy Nuclear Deal with KSA


Giving the Saudi’s nuclear technology is a terrible idea, IMHO. Biden was willing to give it to them, but only if the deal includes the inspection regime to make sure the commercial nuclear program was not used to make nuclear weapons, like the regime that Obama required when he entered into a deal to share nuclear technology with the UAE. Biden also insisted that the Saudis recognize Israel as a precondition to any nuclear deal. The Saudis would not do it, particularly after Israel’s brutal invasion of Gaza made diplomatic recognition even more politically toxic in the Arab world. But even if Biden had gotten UAE-style inspections and recognition of Israel out of the deal, I still don’t think it would be worth it. No inspection regime is perfect, and once the nuclear door is opened, you can’t really close it again.
Trump has now entered into a deal to share nuclear technology with Saudi Arabia. How did our deal-making president reach an agreement after Biden couldn’t? He dropped all the conditions that Biden insisted upon and gave the Saudis everything they wanted without much in return. No inspection regime (in fact, the deal seems to be crafted to prevent UN inspections from happening) and no recognition of Israel. Art of the deal!

It is almost certainly the usual phenomenon. Trump can’t handle criticism from anyone on his own side, so he is probably lying about the recognize Israel condition to the deal. If the administration now tries to slip that in the final deal, the Saudis won’t sign, which will kill the deal (which is good!) But it is also possible that recognition of Israel won’t be in the actual agreement, the Saudis will sign and won’t recognize Israel while Trump just insists that they will or have.

ADDING:

The (terrible) deal was announced and signed, now Trump wants to add a condition after the fact that Saudi has been explicitly rejecting for years and, what, hoping they won’t notice? Trying to regain Saudi confidence after Iran war debacle was likely the point of the deal, and this ain’t that.

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— Abu Aardvark (@abuaardvark.bsky.social) July 23, 2026 at 1:12 PM

ADDING (a second time):

Typical.

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) July 23, 2026 at 12:41 PM

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