I looked at the data.
- Prospecting Response Down Significantly Post-COVID.
- Ad-Costs Up 25% In The Past Three Years.
- Huge Circulation Cuts Among Lapsed Buyers and Prospects.
- Dire New/Reactivated Buyer Counts After The Circulation Cuts.
The response to this problem is obvious (digital marketing). It was obvious in 2005. It was obvious back in 2015. It’s obvious today. Doesn’t matter. I’ll hop on a video conference and it is clear that to the people on the other end of the computer the answer is not obvious.
2015 was an interesting time … the structural element of old-school cataloging (i.e. dying co-ops) altered the business model. Smart catalogers were well into their move into digital marketing at that time … structural changes did not mean much to them. For others? Private Equity came calling.
2026 is so darn similar, but for different reasons. Now it is paper / printing / postage that represent the existential threat. Your own business partners are the ones that are converting the marketing channel to one that will only apply to loyal buyers in the future. This time Private Equity isn’t nearly as interested in this business model. You can guess why.
Loyal Buyers
An acquaintance told me that his business was supporting the bankrupt/resurrected Saks empire with catalogs. Retail Dive boldly proclaimed that Nordstrom has their biggest Anniversary catalog ever. Amazon mails a catalog.
What are the common threads across that paragraph?
- Huge Brands.
- Big Budgets.
- Loyal Buyers.
Catalog marketing certainly works among Baby Boomers, a well documented fact. If it works at all among younger customers (not documented at all for good reason), it works among the most loyal buyers.
If there is a future in catalog marketing, it is with Loyal Buyers. They will be the only segment of customers who produce enough revenue to overcome the prohibitive costs imposed upon you by the paper / printing / postage folks.
Perform a little thought experiment for me. Pretend your productivity improves by 5% over the next three years. Assume that your ad costs increase by another 25%. Run a p&l on each segment. Which segments “work”? Which segments need to be cut?
- Works = Loyal Buyers.
- Doesn’t Work = Everybody Else.
In 2015 structural problems with response (i.e. co-ops) led to a catalog crisis that Private Equity capitalized on.
In 2026 structural problems with ad costs (paper / printing / postage) are leading to a crisis and Private Equity isn’t as interested as in the past. This means catalog marketing will shift to a Loyal Buyer marketing channel to overcome high ad costs. Your job is to have a plan for how you will acquire new customers in this framework.
I realize many readers don’t want to hear that message, especially readers in the vendor world. You’re in paper, you’ve been contracting for a decade or more, you need to feed your family. You need to convince your current customer base to spend more for the exact same product they’ve always purchased. If your current customer base doesn’t spend more? Bad for you. If your current customer base spends more? Bad for your current customer base.
This is a different structural problem than the one in 2015 (when co-ops were failing to produce responsive names and clients began to struggle to acquire new customers). The 2015 structural problem could easily be overcome with digital marketing for new customers and catalog marketing (as part of a portfolio – big for some, small for most) for existing customers.
The 2026 structural problem? Much worse. We’re not going to beat it.
