‘Tables have turned’: Big bank exec reveals huge power shift

These were the scenes of the past two years as large crowds turned out at auctions such as this one at Alexandria. Picture by Max Mason-Hubers

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After years of soul-crushing auctions and lightning-fast sales, the tables have finally turned, with a big four bank executive flagging a dramatic turning point that’s changing everything.

As the traditional spring selling surge kicks into gear, a seismic shift is happening beneath the national surface, cracking the absolute frenzy that defined recent years of property sales.

National Australia Bank home lending executive Denton Pugh reveals why longer selling times, massive vendor discounts and a surge in listings mean buyers are finally taking back control this spring.

NAB home lending executive Denton Pugh.

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By Denton Pugh

Spring is traditionally Australia’s busiest housing season. As the weather warms up, more properties hit the market, auction activity increases and many buyers who put their plans on hold over winter start actively looking again.

But while the spring selling season is underway, this year’s housing market looks different to the one many Australians have grown used to over recent years.

Interest rates remain elevated, affordability continues to be a challenge for many households, and uncertainty around the economic outlook means plenty of Australians are still taking a wait-and-see approach.

But beneath the national headlines, conditions can look very different depending on where you’re buying. In reality, there are hundreds of local markets, made up of different suburbs, property types, and buyers.

A buyer looking at an inner-city suburb in Sydney may be experiencing a very different market to someone searching for their first home in Adelaide, upgrading in Melbourne’s outer suburbs or considering a move to a regional area.

A Clovelly house auction underway. Picture: Rohan Kelly

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While conditions remain challenging overall, opportunities are beginning to emerge for some buyers who are in a position to purchase.

Across the country, the number of properties available for sale has increased, giving buyers more time to compare options and make informed decisions.

At the same time, homes are taking longer to sell. National median selling times have risen from 28 days a year ago to 39 days today, giving buyers more breathing room than they may have experienced during the peak of the market.

We’re also seeing sellers become more realistic on price. National vendor discounts are now sitting at their highest level in at least two years, creating more scope for negotiation in some parts of the market.

For much of the past few years, many buyers felt they were constantly on the back foot. Properties were moving quickly, competition was intense and opportunities to negotiate were limited.

While affordability remains challenging, conditions are beginning to look different in parts of the country. some buyers are finding they have more choice, more time and greater ability to negotiate than they did a year ago.

This doesn’t mean housing has suddenly become affordable. Affordability remains a real challenge and a lower purchase price doesn’t always make buying easier if your borrowing capacity has also changed.

Affordability has been smashed in the past few years as prices skyrockets. Picture: NewsWire / Damian Shaw

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We’re seeing customers adapt rather than abandon their home ownership goals, whether that’s expanding their search to different suburbs, considering different property types or taking more time before entering the market.

That’s another reason buyers should focus on their own circumstances and the market they’re looking to buy in, rather than broad national headlines.

Recent data shows some of the higher value segments of Sydney and Melbourne have experienced larger declines than many other parts of the market. However, conditions continue to vary across cities, suburbs and property types.

For first-home buyers in a position to buy, more choice and less competition can create greater confidence to explore their options and negotiate when the right property comes along.

For some owner-occupiers looking to upgrade, the equation can look different again. If the value of their current home has softened, the value of the property they’re looking to buy may have also adjusted.

Of course, none of that changes the bigger challenge facing Australia’s housing market. We still need more homes, in more locations, and a housing pipeline that keeps pace with population growth.

Productivity Commission research estimates we are producing around 50 per cent fewer dwellings per hour worked than we were in the mid-1990s. Building more homes, and building them more efficiently, remains the long-term challenge.

But while those broader challenges are worked through, buyers are continuing to adapt

to the market we have today.

For those who are in a position to purchase, this spring may feel very different to the market of recent years. And in a market that is behaving differently from suburb to suburb and city to city, understanding the market you’re searching in has never been

more important.

** Denton Pugh is National Australia Bank’s executive for home lending