A 2026 NWSL Midseason Analysis From the Lens of Expected Threat — American Soccer Analysis

Now finally, we’re at the league leaders in Expected Threat and in the standings San Diego. The stats hating stalwart Kenza Dali leads the league at 2.42 followed by the incredible Dudinha (1.57). Dudinha’s season ending injury is a big blow at 15% of the Wave’s total output. Dudinha is not only the Waves’ second largest contributor in Expected Threat, but ranks fifth overall in the league. Kennedy Wesley (0.90), Ludmila (0.87), Mimi Van Zanten (0.86), have all been strong contributors to San Diego’s league leading threat. 

San Diego is dangerous from all sides. Threat is well balanced from both the right and left, at 43% and 44% respectively. The Wave are remarkably effective moving the ball through the thirds, and from the final third into the penalty area, which well folks, is why they are not only top of the table, but #1 in Expected Threat.

A League Wide View

We’ve made it to the end! To recap, what stands out is how teams at the top (San Diego, Utah, KC) create danger from multiple zones, while struggling teams rely too heavily on one approach or one player. 

As with any model based analysis, there are limitations. This version of xT is derived from 2025 league-wide passing and shooting patterns and applied to 2026 data, meaning it does not fully capture tactical evolution across seasons. The underlying logistic regression xG component may also underrepresent more nuanced shot contexts, while the event-based nature of xT excludes factors such as defensive pressure, body orientation, and goalkeeper positioning. Most importantly, the relatively small sample size (11–13 matches at midseason mark) hides variance unique to the 2026 season that is then regressed toward 2025 league averages.

Finally, a table of the top 15 players in overall Expected Threat is included below for reference.