The idea for this ramble came about when I was talking to an old friend at a baby shower. To be clear it wasn’t his baby shower, he was just another guy with a mustache I was neighbors with back in college and I knew we could talk about beer and facial hair instead of babies. He also used to work at Iron Horse a few years ago and naturally has some friends at other breweries, where he had recently heard the phrase “flat is the new up.”
I remember hearing something similar years ago when an economist was describing post-bubble market corrections, and the full quote was “flat is the new up, down is the new flat and dead is the new down.” Given the craft beer landscape I would guess this is something that breweries all over have been saying a lot these past couple years. It’s rough out there and the accumulating number of brewery closures is ominous.
Naturally, some headlines about breweries closing hit harder than others, like Rogue. Rogue Ales & Spirits has been a staple in the PNW for 37 years, and abruptly closed all of its locations mid-November 2025, blindsiding its employees right before Thanksgiving & Christmas… Brutal. Apparently they had over a half million dollars in debt from back rent and taxes, but this is ultimately just another painful bullet point in the broader conversation about the downward trend of craft brewing thanks in large part to supply chain issues, inflation, tariff chaos and declining sales.
But here’s the weird thing… Iron Horse Brewery is actually kind of up. Not as in “flat is the new up” up, but slightly “UP” up in a few categories. I mean it’s not like anyone is getting rich but our revenue increased significantly these past couple years and our costs are mostly lowering controllably. “WTF, how?” Rogue was much bigger than IHB, so you’d think they’d be harder to topple, but (in this case) bigger doesn’t necessarily mean better, or more stable. Rogue had much higher operating costs and they made some risky investments that didn’t pay out in the long run (see their investment into THC seltzers to learn more on that point).
Here are a few factors and decisions that have been paying off for Iron Horse:
- Our head brewer, Jake, got a sweetheart deal on a truckload of 12oz brite cans before the tariffs on aluminum hit.
- We adapted and invested in a can labeler instead of relying on higher-cost printed cans for individual releases.
- We are an organization that plays “the Great Game of Business” and has an “open book management” business model (so every employee can dig around in Quickbooks and find ways to improve the numbers). There isn’t one person here that hasn’t spent time thinking about ways to add revenue while decreasing costs.
- We tightened the belt on non-essential expenses.
- We borrowed a ladder and stole some French Crown Jewels from the Louvre.
- We reached out to companies to produce and package their products, BUT we didn’t sacrifice brewing our own products in the process. We just focused on our top sellers like Irish Death, the Death Family Series and High Five Hefe.
AND it’s worth noting that we pay close attention to market trends as they start to emerge. Single-serves started to become more popular (tall boys), so we quickly got Irish Death and Oddstock Crisp into 19.2oz cans, and we’re in the process producing more 19.2oz options for 2026. Quilter’s Irish Death is our bread and butter, and despite dark beer being a shrinking niche, we capitalize on being the “everyday dark craft beer” brewery, while still allocating time and resources into growing markets like hard cider on the side to supplement revenue during seasonal dips.
We’re not immune to market fluctuations or economic impacts, but we are pretty crafty and so far have figured out ways to keep the lights on in an otherwise dark time for the craft brewery world. Flat may be the new up like people are saying, but it’s no time to be pessimistic and throw in the towel since clearly there are still some promising pockets of craft breweries staying “up” up, thanks to some clever footwork. Sadly, Rogue’s Dead Guy Ale may be living up to its name now, but Irish Death isn’t headed towards the grave just yet. We’ll keep juking out Death as long as we can… we’ve gotten pretty good at it in the last 21 years.
Do you notice any emerging markets that you think Iron Horse could dabble in? What do you wish IHB would do for the world? We’re always open to suggestions and appreciate your feedback, as long as it’s not just “bring back Peanut Butter Death” again. Let us know by emailing your ideas to RileySchmit@IronHorseBrewery.com
