The New York Fed’s Services Business Activity Index fell to -20.7 in October 2026 from -8.7 in September, marking its lowest level since March as business activity contracted at a faster pace.
The business climate index was little changed at -35.0, with just over half of respondents describing conditions as worse than normal. Employment was steady, while wage growth remained modest. Supply availability continued to deteriorate, although at a slower pace than in September.
Input price increases remained sharp, while selling price increases accelerated to their fastest pace since 2022. Capital spending remained weak. Looking ahead, firms turned pessimistic about the six-month outlook, with the expectations index falling into negative territory for the first time since December 2025.
Expectations for future input and selling price increases remained elevated and largely unchanged.
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